In what direction should we take American health care policy? The current climate seems to favor moving toward top-down rationing, price controls, mandatory coverage and payments, and numerous other controls on the buying of health care services and insurance. The less popular but more promising path... [read more...]

Why do highly intelligent and capable business leaders, backed by an army of talent and a flood of information, make so many extremely expensive mistakes? This article looks at the role of mental models in decision making and forecasting and suggests effective and efficient methods for improving. “Premortem... [read more...]

Recent events have reminded us once more how often and how badly business and economic forecasts go wrong. It’s when things change drastically, for better or worse, that the naked state of the Emperor’s forecasts are clearly revealed. Why don’t we do better? A major part of the explanation is that most... [read more...]